The global base oils landscape will become increasingly competitive with a shift to Groups II and III while supply will outpace demand, the vice president at ICIS Consulting said on Thursday.

Stefano Zehnder said Groups II and III capacity expansions to 2025 will be 50% greater than demand growth, according to ICIS projections.

Meanwhile, Group I capacity reductions will be smaller than demand destruction stemming from Groups II and III taking market share, which will accelerate.

Group II will dominate growth, especially in Asia, where most of the incremental market will be.